As the only publicly traded third-party restaurant delivery service, Chicago-based Grubhub is one of the largest players and one of the most scrutinized brands in the industry. According to a report from investment firm Canaccord Genuity, its stock price in the low $100s is a buy, with a new target to reach $130.
In the report, Canaccord said Grubhub is becoming an increasingly important revenue engine for the restaurant industry. Its business model, which was initially tailored to independent restaurant takeout and delivery services, transitioned meaningfully over the past three-to–four years.
The analytic firm said Grub’s network effect paradigm shifted from “diners drive more restaurants, and more restaurants drive more diners” to “putting all the necessary building blocks in place to drive mass market adoption of online food delivery.”
It specifically called out the brand’s multi-year investments in delivery, gradual penetration of chain restaurants, its expanding presence in smaller markets and multiple strategic acquisitions, including its blockbuster partnership with Yum Brands.
Looking at the on-demand delivery industry from a higher perspective, Canaccord’s report said the total addressable market for delivered restaurant meals remains large, including full-service and limited-service restaurants, as well as cafeterias, buffets, snack and non-alcoholic beverage bars and catering.
“About 35%, or about $180 billion, is spent on takeout and delivery, with the vast majority still transacted offline,” the report says. “Despite multiple online delivery options (Delivery.com and Seamless.com were among the first food delivery platforms, launched in 1995 and 1999) and wide adoption of the food delivery concept in large metropolitan areas.”
The report concluded by stating that the $180 billion food takeout and delivery market will increasing transition to online channels as choice and supply increases, especially in smaller markets that don’t currently offer online food delivery.